Before Susan Oatway begins explaining how market forecast and analysis come together, she reminded us not to glamorize it. “It’s not rocket science,” she says, brushing off the mysteries that surround her work. Yet when she describes her task as hours lost searching for the perfect dataset or the careful examination of global trade flows from pieces of floating evidence, it reminds one of a scientist surrounded by mountains of data. 

Oatway, a Senior Research Analyst at S&P Global’s Journal of Commerce, occupies a quiet yet critical role within the industry. While on a day-to-day basis, shippers and forwarders rarely walk into industry analysts, their decisions are nonetheless significantly influenced by analysts’ work, such as where and when to invest, what risks to consider, and what to mitigate. The opinions and judgements produced by analysts such as Oatway are the result of deep insight into the numbers, forecasts, and historical trends. In an industry that continues to communicate through word of mouth, she has closely followed the movement of intelligence and validated it through facts. 

Oatway has been in the industry for over 35 years and began her career at P&O Bulk Shipping before moving into research at Drewry, an independent maritime consultancy, where she became a principal analyst covering breakbulk and multipurpose shipping. She also co-authored Drewry’s refrigerated shipping reports. Over decades of experience, she has witnessed global economic events that have shaped the way trade and logistics function today.

She recalls the 2008 global financial crisis, “The global financial crisis of 2008 effectively brought to an end the German “KG funds” for investing in shipping. A scheme that was widely used in the MPV sector. Since then, outside investment has been very scarce. A lot of new ships were ordered in the run-up to 2008-10, which meant that after the crash, there were many expensive ships without the cargo to pay for their loans. It has left a sort of PTSD among some carriers about building new ships now – hence why the current orderbook is so modest.”

(Susan Oatway)

Watching the world closely, she mentions the cyclical nature of trade and marvels at how it's reinvented over and over. As curiosity powers her work, Oatway keeps a close watch on carriers, shippers, breakbulk cargo, and project logistics. 

At the Journal of Commerce, Oatway has the privilege to work in one of the industry’s most extensive data ecosystems. Her day-to-day tasks include reviewing fleet lists, tracking trends in ship demolitions and new builds, and translating data points into coherent, meaningful insights that her client can access.

“One misconception is that we make it up,” she notes with amusement. “But that’s far from the case!” Before writing reports, she asserts that all available data on cargo demand, vessel supply, and market opinions from both shippers and carriers are thoroughly assessed. 

She adds that at the Journal of Commerce, she is surrounded by other journalists, analysts, and experts in the field, such as Ari Ashe, Eric Johnson, Carly Fields, and Mark Szakonyi, making it an intellectually thriving and impactful organization.

“We are standing on the shoulders of those who came before us and are supported by our parent company, S&P Global. These combined pillars have sustained years of research and analysis, allowing us to also access the goodwill and respect of those who rely on our work,” she remarks. 

Apart from her reports, Oatway speaks passionately about her work gathering HS codes (Harmonised Systems) for breakbulk cargo, which tends to be so much more fragmented. “There are so many different kinds of cargo that make up breakbulk, and no one ever notes project cargo on their bill of lading,” she sighs. So, while an arduous task, Oatway recognizes the value of properly categorizing and validating breakbulk trade flow data.

The same determination also encompasses her work on the Journal of Commerce Breakbulk Shipper Group, which is an invite-only forum that collects real-time data from shippers and forwarders who charter vessels.

“We ask them questions about how much volume they're putting on each ship type, whether it's a multipurpose vessel? Or a project carrier? Or a container carrier? Or a deck carrier? Or a RoRo? We also ask them to compare volumes and lead times with previous months. For example, do you need three months or more to book those ships ahead?” How the cargo moves between each sector affects the outlook for the market, she explains.

Unlike other indices in the sector, the Breakbulk Shipper Group does not discuss freight rates but rather gathers data from shippers to produce an index that is modelled after S&P Global’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which focuses on the direction that the market is taking.   

She enthusiastically continues, “I am always reaching out to shippers who could offer us this intelligence. We do love shippers here at the Journal of Commerce and are really interested in what they have to say. The industry is traditional in many ways and shares information anecdotally, so we always have an ear out for it when interacting with shippers.”

The Journal of Commerce will mark its 200th anniversary next year, and Oatway reports that her colleague Janet Nodar is part of a team writing a book to commemorate the event. Initially founded as a daily newspaper (upon the insistence of inventors like Samuel Morse), it remains an independent maritime publication, working within the folds of S&P Global’s vast data-oriented universe. Today, their clients include shippers, carriers, investors, EPC companies, project owners, and anyone who depends on data to inform their decisions.

The Journal of Commerce is also gearing up to host the Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference in New Orleans, USA. This year’s theme: “Risk and Recalibration,” emerged from months of conversations that Oatway had with industry experts, shippers, and carriers. “The word ‘Uncertainty’ was mentioned many times”, Oatway remarks.

(Susan Oatway)

As geopolitical turmoil ensues around the globe, she notes, demand varies in different sectors. Oil and gas, power, mining, and metals are trending positively, while chemicals and renewables are quieter. Tariffs and fees remain destabilizing forces, but she adds, “unpredictability and the inability to plan have been added to the melee”.

The conference agenda features many panels that will consider risks in supply chains, fleet capacity, shifting trade dynamics, and how to prepare for it all. Some panels include, “Supply Chain Risk: When Uncertainty is the New Certainty”, where speakers will untangle the tariff turmoil and supply chain risks, whilst "Smokin' Hot Trade Lane: Intra-American Transport" discusses the increase in cargo on this trade route due to all the mining and power generation in that region.

Oatway, who is hosting the panel titled “Assessing the Fleet: The Outlook for Capacity," is discussing 2026 capacity plans with the top carriers, which she jokingly calls the “annual grilling”.  She is also hosting the closing session, an outlook panel featuring top names in the industry, including a shipper, a carrier, an EPC, and a freight forwarder, who will discuss the topics raised during the two-day conference and provide outlooks for 2026.

But for Oatway, these events are not just platforms for another round of analysis, rather a space to actually hear the real-world impact of them. For that reason, she believes networking is integral to market analysis. “One feature of this industry is how much people like to talk. Carriers value communication,” she says. “They want conversations, not just transactions.” 

While the assumption is that an analyst’s job is very desk bound, Oatway disagrees, “As an analyst, I have learnt to work a room over the years, even if it is just to say hello to people and promise them a call later – after all, I don’t have a ship or a cargo to add to the mix – so not everyone wants to talk to me just then!”

Her interest in the Pulp and Paper Alliance is a case in point of her interest in networking. Oatway states that she is closely watching the pulp and paper market because of the new building of open-hatch, multipurpose vessels, and heavy-lift carriers in China. She remarks, “this really interests me, because it will provide for some interesting dynamics to the traditional market”. Reinstating her point about networking with those in the supply chain industry, she quickly points out that her doors are always open, “Just send me an email, and I am, by all accounts, genuinely happy to talk”, she warmly adds.

There is one common thread that runs through Oatway’s entire career, and that is, market analysis starts with listening and paying attention to ships, data, trends, but most of all to people. If knowledge is power in any industry, then analysts hold a unique position at its foundation. Yet, as all researchers understand, knowledge grows in value when it is shared, and Oatway practises this principle as she provides market analysis to a range of clients who rely on insights to navigate the complexities of global trade.

Email Susan Oatway at: susan.oatway@spglobal.com

Article By: Krutika Patri